Our Scientific Publications

Probabilistic Forecasting

A Forecasting Model with Robust and Reduced Redundancy Latent Series

Kunpeng Xu, Lifei Chen, Jean-Marc Patenaude and Shengrui Wang
Presented at the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Conference (SIAM 2024)

This paper introduces a new type of regime-switching model that uses nonlinear kernel-based representations to automatically detect and forecast shifts in financial market behavior across multiple time series. Its key innovation lies in uncovering hidden, time-varying patterns without prior knowledge of regimes—making it highly relevant for financial applications like volatility forecasting, risk assessment, and market trend analysis.